The Inspection Paradox (Bus Stop Bias)

The Inspection Paradox, or waiting-time paradox, says that when you arrive at a random time, you’re more likely to encounter a long interval than a short one. This happens because longer gaps are more likely to contain the moment you arrive. The usual mistake is assuming that if buses arrive every 10 minutes on average, then a randomly arriving passenger should wait about 5 minutes. That only works when the intervals are regular.
Adjust the "Chaos" slider to make buses bunch up. Click "Spawn Passenger" to see why you always land in the longest waits.

Further reading: Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams' article The Inspection Paradox ,and Renewal theory on Wikipedia.